Generational Changes and Firearms

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The times, they area-changin’, and the average American firearms enthusiast is changing radically with them. Let’s look at how Baby Boomer generation shaped the firearms interests and market of the past 40-some years, and how as we Boomers exit the scene the next generations of firearms enthusiasts will influence what the market is and how radically different it will be. I attended a somewhat local semi-annual "fire hall" gun show in early Spring 2022, a habit of the past 30 years.

This one has a reputation as an "old time" gun show; more of a gun, gun parts, and ammo bargain hunt than a show hall housing portable commercial gun shop operations for the weekend. In fact, it has been along-time joke of sorts that "someone had to die so that someone else could get a table." Normally, between the social hall and the equipment garage, there were no spare tables to be had. If someone canceled due to an emergency, someone else on the wait list took their tables for that particular show.

The younger firearms enthusiast is interested in black rifles, black handguns, and military surplus weapons. This last show it was all too clear that old adage was not a joke. There were 11 open tables or spots that were usually occupied by tables. This was unheard of at this show up until Covid-19 hit. The first show held at this venue since the pandemic was in the fall of 2021, and at 0800 on Saturday there were 17 tables empty due to cancellations.

Many of the old time vendors didn’t want to take a risk with the crowds in the two buildings with limited ventilation. By 0930 at last October’s show, many of the empties were filled by nearby vendors spreading out or by folks on the waiting list that were able to get there quickly. They probably had the vehicle packed, just in case, or got a call from the organizer on Friday night. It was much the same this past show, except seven tables But as Boomers fire their last shot, things are changing—such as gun shows.

There appears to be no one under 50 in this photo of a typical "fire hall" gun show. weren’t set up to start with; it was an extra-wide aisle for a change. There’s a sea change taking place in the American firearms scene, and when it’s done what’s left won’t be recognizable to anyone born before 1965. To understand what’s happening, we have to review how we got where we are.

Morris Massey, retired professor at the University of Colorado at Boulder developed his famous theory that helps us understand who we are, who we’ve become, and the differences between generations. The theory is summed up in the improbable statement, "You are where you were when." The "when" is about the time we reach early teen years, age 13 to 15. Until then, the world is all about ourselves. But something happens at that stage of our lives; we see ourselves as part of the bigger world. We socialize and we often

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start developing our personal outlook; our philosophy of life. Think about what was going on within your immediate environment and in the world when you were between 13 and 15, and you’ll see that there’s a good chance that time period will have been significant to you and its effects will have remained a driving force in your life. So it is with each generation and our generation of interest here are the Baby Boomers. Dictionaries define the Baby Boomer generation as consisting of those born between 1946 and 1964.

I’m square in the middle as a 1955 model. The Boomers, for short, were the product of tens of thousands of World War II veterans coming back to the United States and marrying their sweethearts, buying For decades the definitive classic car was the ‘57 Chevy Bel Air. Today, even the classic car market is undergoing a transformation. houses and vehicles, and starting families, mostly that latter part.

The post-WWII and post-Korean War period, despite the Cold War and its threat of nuclear annihilation, saw the birth of the concept of The American Dream—suburban ranch houses with modern conveniences, laundry and kitchen appliances that lightened the domestic workload for the homemaker, the development of television and its programming that brought news to the young families and entertained them, and at least one if not two vehicles in the garage or driveway.

The late 1940s through the mid- 1960s saw a period of unprec- Shows like Gunsmoke in turn influenced Boomers’ interests in firearms, and those Boomers grew up to start Cowboy Action Shooting associations and their competitions. edented birthrate in the United States. These Boomer kids and their parents heavily influenced American culture in the process. Automobiles grew larger in response to growing families.

There were huge station wagons with or without fake woodgrain trim, large sedans that could seat four kids across in the back seat with room for another in the bench front seat between the parents. GIs became enamored of the Willys MB and Ford GPW jeeps during their service time, and Willys responded with civilian CJ Jeeps, 4WD Jeep trucks, the boxy Jeep Station Wagon, and then in the early 1960s, the "SJ" platform Wagoneer and original Gladiator pickup.

The Wagoneer is credited as being the first modern sport utility vehicle; directly in response to demand by parents of Boomers. Boomers were impressed by parents and grandparents who lived through the Great Depression and reminded Boomers of the hardships they faced, and to be frugal, invest, and wash sheets of tinfoil and save them for later use. Boomers tended to have paper routes, shovel snow, rake leaves, and mow lawns for spending money. We learned to be entrepreneurs and capitalists.

We were taught by fathers, uncles, and grandfathers (and more than a few mothers, too) how to use hand tools and repair our bikes and lawn and garden power tools. My grandfather taught me how to work on automobiles, do house wiring and plumbing, and even rewind small electric motors. We developed practical skills. Post WWII saw the widespread growth of television in American homes, and one of the more popular genres was the western or cowboy drama.

There were dozens; some forgettable one-season-wonders, but many popular multi-season shows including Wagon Train, Rawhide, Bonanza, The Rifleman, The Big Valley, Bat Masterson, Cheyenne,

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The US Rifle, Cal. .30, M1 is a often highly sought-after example. The Cisco Kid, Gunsmoke, Death Valley Days, Have Gun Will Travel, Maverick, and more. These programs were directly responsible for the growth of interest in single action revolvers and lever action rifles among American shooters, and the argument can be made that as we Boomers with an interest in such weapons aged and obtained means, we created the Cowboy Action Shooting sport in its various forms. The Cold War, John F.

Kennedy, and the Vietnam War also shaped and challenged Boomers. One single event exemplifies the profound effect of TV on Boomers, and that was in Dallas on 22 November 1963. We saw it all live, frozen emotionally: the assassination, the funeral, and the collective sadness. Kennedy was idealism personified. He was elected on TV, he lived in the White House on TV, and he died on TV.

I was home sick from school, and plain as day remember my maternal grandmother crying as she sat huddled on the sofa, eyes glued to the Zenith black and white. Through the sixties we saw everything in our living rooms; we saw heroes die; Martin Luther King, Malcolm X, Bobby Kennedy. We saw the riots, we saw the protests. We saw the Vietnam War in our living rooms as we sat around eating dinner, watching the news. But there were accomplishments; Boomers helped put Americans on the moon.

Fun fact: The average age of the men in NASA mission control rooms at Cape Canaveral/Kennedy and Houston was 28 years when Apollo 11 touched down in the Sea of Tranquility. That was the average age; some of those technicians were born in 1946 or just later, and qualify.

Boomers followed in their parents’ and grandparents’ footsteps and became hunters, shooters, collectors, and gunsmiths—our WWII and Korean War veteran fathers gave us toy guns until we were eight or so, then followed with BB guns, pellet guns, and the inevitable .22 rimfire rifle of some description. Boomers were responsible for mega-sales of scoped boltaction Winchester, Remington, Savage, and other hunting rifles, as well as the sporterization of tens of thousands of military surplus rifles.

We followed our fathers and grandfathers into forest and field. Speaking of military surplus, the interest in such firearms really heated up in the 1950s through 1968 when entrepreneurial individuals started import and distribution businesses specifically handing principally foreign military surplus handguns, rifles, ammunition, and accouterments.

As a grade schooler in the early ‘60s, I can recall spending hours perusing the ads in the back of my father’s monthly issues of Outdoor Life and True ("The Man’s Magazine"), scanning the full-page Interarmco ads with pictures of long, sleek Mauser rifles from various European and South American countries and someplace called "Siam," with Italian Carcanos, British Enfields, and Austrian Mannlichers, too.

The prices ran from just under $10 for handguns to not more than $30 for desirable 8mm German GEW and Kar98k Mausers. Those ads disappeared with the passage of the Gun Control Act of 1968, which not only prohibited direct-to-your-home sale of these weapons, but outlawed their importation.

However, when the Firearms Owners Protection Act of 1986 passed, importation of military surplus handguns and rifles was once again legal, and gun shops and gun shows were flooded with $49.95 Swedish Mausers and $295 semi-auto AKs.

At the time, I was 31 and had a bit of disposable income and a keen memory of those Interarmco ads, a dangerous combination for a firearms enthusiast… Boomers in their 40s, 50s, and 60s continued to provide demand for surplus firearms, and bought up millions of ex-Soviet Mosin-Nagant 91-30 rifles, M38 carbines, M44 bayonetted carbines, and M1895 Nagant revolvers from the late 90s through the 20-teens.

Boomers also fueled the firearms print market, both magazines and hardcover reference books on guns, hunting, target shooting, and gunsmithing from the mid-60s though the turn of the 21st century. With the millennium

came the Interwebz, which offered all the information anyone wanted on any particular gun—factual or erroneous, no matter. Boomers helped shape the American Gun Show. From the mid-60s to the early 70s when I was aged 10 to 17, I helped "table sit" for a local gunsmith at an annual gun show at which he would set up. In fact, it was the predecessor of the show I attended mentioned above. I minded his two tables while he circulated, kibitzed, and wheeled and dealed.

Fifty-plus years later, at a particular gun show where I usually set up, I look around at the 20 or so vendors visible and I’m the youngest one save for two at most, and they are late 40s to mid 50s in age. The majority of the vendors have 10+ years on me, and sadly some are no longer returning year-onyear. With many of the gun show exhibitors it’s more a social thing than financial/economic driven.

In away Boomers are directly responsible for re-shaping gun shows and the general firearms enthusiast hobby of today and the near future—because we are either growing old and infirm, or are "leaving the building" altogether. In future, things will be very different as a result. You need three things for a gun show—vendors, product, and attendees. The product is generally available, but changing interests dictate that demand for specific items is starting to drop.

The number of vendors is steadily decreasing, and they are not being replaced by younger vendors in matched quantity. The number of attendees is slightly off as well, if one doesn’t count presidential election years and periods of ammunition scarcity. The same holds for FFL-holding gun shop owners. New stores with young owners are not replacing the established stores that are closing.

The Boomer-aged owners of a nearby decades-old gun shop and military surplus store, a fixture in central Pennsylvania known for its squeaky wood floors, announced its doors closed for good at the end of June 2022. I have a 30-something FFL acquaintance who is a total exception to the rule of his age group in that he worked in a gun store while in high school, declined going to college, and got the backing to start his own gun store a number of years ago.

He does quite well catering to the interests of the under-40 firearms enthusiast, and he tells me that the overwhelming majority of his customers in that demographic buy black rifles, black handguns, or military surplus firearms. These purchases are mostly based on interests developed over years of playing shootem-up video games in which participants may select the weapons with which they choose to "fight." You don’t find scoped pre-64 Winchester Model 70s in video game weapon selection drop-down menus.

In the northern Pennsylvania counties surrounding where I live, the number of people who actively hunt has been dropping. On the route I take to work early on Opening Day of whitetail season I would typically count 15 to 20 vehicles parked to the side of a particular 12 mile stretch of PA 120. The past three years, 2019 through 2021, there were four, five, and three vehicles respectively in that same 12 miles.

Friends and acquaintances report that their children and grandchildren of hunting age don’t have an interest. Apparently there’s no cell phone app or PC program for hunting. Remember, the current 25 to 40 age group "are who they were when" having grown up in the 90s and 2000s, with access to PCs early, second or third generation video games, post-"War on Terror" geopolitics, and little interest in hunting animals.

Consequently, the under 40 crowd doesn’t actively seek out four-digit-dollar wood and blued steel hunting rifles used by their fathers and grandfathers. My 30-something FFL friend tells me that his customers who do buy wood and metal hunting firearms are generally about 50+ years of age.

The youngest of the defined Baby Boomers is now 57, so there are some of the oldest Generation Xmembers who have Boomer traits and interests that have rubbed off on them, however, the older Gen-Xers’ time is soon coming to an end, too. Concern over the socio-political-economic situation in the world and apparent instability has people concerned over personal safety.

Firearms manufacturers and dealers report tens of thousands of first-time gun owners purchasing handguns, shotguns, and semi-automatic rifles for protection and security against anarchist mobs and their "mostly peaceful" protests, who and which local government leaders and law enforcement agencies seem to condone.

The upshot is, quite soon we may see hundreds if not thousands of collections of Winchester Model 70s, 43s, 54s, and Remington 700 ADL and BDL hunting rifles, classic Smith & Wesson and Colt handguns, and high grade shotguns be liquidated within a short period of time. The market will be flooded, and there apparently will be little demand because those under 40 have little or no interest.

The surplus military rifles and handguns in those collections will get snapped up, and even the Colt SP1 ARs, the Springfield M1As, and maybe the preban Polytech AKMs will be in demand. But I envision the supply of collectible Winchesters, Remingtons, Marlins, and even Rugers will far outstrip demand, and what were once four-digit-dollar prices will find the market sorting them out in the three-digit-dollar domain. Imagine 20 years from now not being able to give away a superscarce pre-64 Winchester cham-